[Post-doc completed] Lucile Marescot: Integrative ecological modelling of Senegalese locust management

Integrative ecological modelling of Senegalese locust management

Lucile Marescot, postdoctoral researcher at CIRAD-CBGP in Montpellier, specializing in models for assessing life history traits and spatiotemporal dynamics of natural populations, I am starting an ecological modeling project for Senegalese locust management. The aim of this project is to determine the environmental mechanisms that trigger outbreak events and to provide farmers with preventive solutions to combat this pest.
I'm an agricultural engineer with a PhD in ecology and conservation biology. As such, I use statistical models and decision-support tools to assess the conservation status of more or less threatened species. The aim is to propose management measures to protect them, while ensuring the economic development of rural communities.
The objectives of my post-doctorate are to develop an integrative, agent-based model of Oedaleus senegalensis population dynamics in Senegal. This model will need to integrate management techniques for this species, and in particular farmers' technical itineraries for modifying plant protein and sugar contents. This model will make it possible 1) to extrapolate the results obtained on a plot scale to the landscape scale; and 2) to assess the necessary proportions of local fertilization to enable this pest to be managed without major agricultural losses.
At a time when the destruction of natural environments has become so massive, the role of scientists is not so much to vainly oppose the impacts of human activities, but rather to quantify our ecological footprint and show how to reduce it in order to envisage sustainable, reasoned agriculture. Digital agriculture, in my view, inspires a shift towards more eco-responsible lifestyles, while promoting a digital and technological revolution at the service of the environment.

• Starting date:  1st February 2021
• Scientific field: Population dynamics, Community ecology
• Funding: US-AIDS
• Post-doc supervisors: Cyril Piou, CBGP, Cirad
• #DigitAg : Axe 6 : Modélisation et simulation (systèmes de production agricole), Challenge 3 : La protection des cultures, Challenge 6 : La gestion des territoires agricoles, Challenge 8 : Développement agricole au Sud

Keywords: Multi-agent model, pests, locusts, Oedaleus senegalensis, climate change, fertilization, phase polyphenism

Abstract: Locusts are among the most destructive of agricultural resources in the world. For some species, called locusts, phase polyphenism is a phenotypic plasticity that allows them to modify their behaviour and population dynamics depending on density. Oedaleus senegalensis, the Senegalese locust, is a species of locust that can cause problems throughout the Sahel region. It presents a slight phase polyphenism, but above all a particular nutritional ecology that modifies its population dynamics depending on the content of sugar and protein of the plants on which it feed. As part of a project led by Arizona State University (Global Locust Initiative, PI Arianne Cease), experiments at the scale of agricultural plots are underway to verify how soil fertilization modify local dynamics of populations of O. senegalensis. However, since this species has significant migratory capacities, the results at the scale of a plot are not necessarily extrapolated linearly to the scale of a landscape or a region. This locust species has already been the subject of the development of population dynamics models. However, these are not (or little) spatialized and do not take into account the local specificities of resources available for the development of populations. The objective of the project is to develop an integrative model representing the population dynamics of Oedaleus senegalensis in Senegal. This model will have to integrate the techniques of management of this species and in particular the technical itineraries of the farmers to modify the levels of proteins and sugars of the plants. Ultimately, the model will allow: 1) to extrapolate the results obtained at the plot scale to the landscape scale; and 2) to assess the necessary proportions of local fertilization to allow management of this pest avoiding significant agricultural losses. An agent-based modelling approach is proposed. This approach should allow representing the landscapes by spatial entities in which the locust populations develop. Migrations and various traits of locust life histories will be taken into account using the literature on this species. Nevertheless, one of the difficulties of the model to be developed will be its ability to integrate data of different kinds: biological and ecological knowledge on the species, expert knowledge of farmers, models of plant growth, environmental information from remote sensing and possibly fine meteorological data. The model should also be a platform for discussion with stakeholders, so should have a user-friendly interface so that they can interact with the model and transfer the results of the simulations to real situations.

Contact :  cyril.piou [AT] cirad.fr – Tél: 07.58.74.74.99

Social networks : ResearchGate – LinkedIn 

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