Added value of farmers' weather IoT stations and ensemble weather forecasts to provide local advice on water management integrating uncertainty

I'm based at CNRM (Centre National de Recherche Météorologique) - Toulouse, as the project I'm working on has a very strong meteorological link (a collaboration between ACTA and CNRM). My background is in applied mathematics. In particular, I did my Master's degree in analysis, edp, proba at the University of Bordeaux, and then I did my PhD thesis at Inria Bordeaux Sud-ouest in biological modeling.
During my PhD at Inria, within the CARMEN team, I worked on the modeling of cardiac mitochondria (my thesis). In this new post-doctoral adventure, I'll be looking at how meteorological uncertainties can be taken into account in agricultural irrigation management models.
Digital technology is having an impact on the agricultural production sector. Through the various technologies it implements, it is enabling agriculture to gain in efficiency and transform it in depth. That's why it's worth investing in this fast-evolving field.
Using modeling, data, and expertise in mathematics and computer science, my post doc objective would be to investigate the impact of meteorological uncertainties on irrigation management by farmers using decision support tools. And consequently to help him better manage his crop and reduce costs. This work could give me a very enriching interdisciplinary experience, in addition to scientific expertise in the fields in question.

• Starting date:  19 April 2022
• Scientific field: Data sciences, Modeling, Applied mathematics, Digital agriculture
• Funding: #DigitAg
• Supervisors: François Brun (Acta), Sébastien Roux (Mistea, Inrae) et Laure Raynaud (CNRM)
• #DigitAg :  Axe 6 : Modélisation et simulation (systèmes de production agricole), Axe 2 : Innovations en agriculture numérique, Challenge 5 : Les services de conseil agricole, Challenge 0 : sujet transversal, Challenge 1 : Le challenge agroécologique

Keywords: Data sciences, Digital agriculture, Decision support, Modelling, Statistics, Meteorological data

Abstract: Agriculture is one of the activities most impacted by weather hazards, modulating in particular the crop cycle, irrigation management, crop protection, etc. This sector has a strong demand for decision support tools (DST) aimed at adjusting crop operations according to weather constraints. In recent years, weather forecasts have evolved, now offering information on uncertainty. These probabilistic forecasts, also known as ensemble forecasts, make it possible to propose realistic scenarios to represent the uncertainties of forecasts up to 15 days. In addition, farmers are equipping themselves with connected stations to provide weather observation to the DST. Nevertheless, the deployment of these new low-cost stations raises the question of their quality and therefore of the associated uncertainties as well. At the same time, all these elements contribute to the construction of precision agriculture. The objective of this post-doc is to evaluate the impact of the uncertainties of weather forecasts on water balance forecasts and, ultimately, on the recommendations made by the DST for irrigation management. For this purpose, the overall forecasts will be used. In addition, the sensitivity of these DST to the three main categories of uncertainty sources will be jointly evaluated: the overall forecasts, the meteorological observations from connected stations and the agronomic parameters or input variables. We will consider 2 decision support tools for irrigation management in vineyards and maize. It will show the interest of ensemble forecasting approaches compared to classical forecasts or frequency approaches.

Contact : francois.brun [AT] acta.asso.fr

Social network:  LinkedIn

Communications & Papers:

Journal publication 

• A simple model of cardiac mitochondrial respiration with experimental validation, Bachar Tarraf, Emmanuel Suraniti, Camille Colin, Stéphane Arbault, Philippe Diolez, Michael Leguèbe, Yves Coudière, Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, Jun. 2021

Conference publications

• Global Sensitivity Analysis for Uncertain Parameters Applied to a Cardiac Mitochondrial Model (4 pages paper + oral presentation), Bachar Tarraf, Michael Leguèbe, Yves Coudière, Emmanuel Suraniti, Camille Colin, Stéphane Arbault, Philippe Diolez, CinC 2020 – Computing in cardiology, Sep. 2020, Rimini / Virtual, Italy

• Sensitivity Analysis of a Simple Cardiac Mitochondrial Model (2 pages abstract + poster), Bachar Tarraf, Michael Leguèbe, Yves Coudière, VPH2020 – International Conference on the Virtual Physiological Human, Aug 2020, Paris / Virtual, France

• Thermodynamical Fluxes for the Modeling of Cardiac Mitochondrial Calcium Handling (4 pages paper + oral presentation), Bachar Tarraf, Michael Leguèbe, Yves Coudière, Philippe Diolez, CinC 2019 – Computing In Cardiology 2019, Sep 2019, Singapour, Singapore

Scientific communications 

• Dynamical behaviour of a stage structered predator-prey model for multispecies demography, Frederic Barraquand, Bachar Tarraf, MMEE – Mathematical Models in Ecology and Evolution, July 2019, Lyon, France

• A Simple Cardiac Mitochondrial Model Validated Against Oxygen Consumption Measures Using a Global Sensitivity Analysis Approach, Bachar Tarraf, Michael Leguèbe, Yves Coudière, Congrès d’Analyses Numériques pour les Jeunes – 2020